Is It Inflation Or Fear of Inflation?

You may read or hear the term “inflation fears” being used with increasing frequency. In turn, that raises the question of what we’re dealing with — is it inflation or fear of inflation?

What Is Inflation

Let’s start by defining terms. We will assume you know what fear is. On the other hand, you may not be sure about inflation.

Inflation is the increase in prices throughout the entire economy. Consequently, a rise in gas prices alone is not inflation. However, if food, housing, general goods, and gas prices jump together, you are dealing with inflation.

The primary measures of U. S. inflation are the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE).

In April, the CPI jumped to 4.2 percent, its biggest 12-month increase since September 2008’s 4.9 percent hike.

Markets React

With one of the primary inflation indicators jumping, many wall streeters started selling. (Cue Chicken Little!). However, the Federal Reserve did not take the bait and stilled inflation fears by reasserting its stand against raising rates. The Fed has said repeatedly it expects “transitory inflation” as the economy reopens.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated he does not see a need to tighten monetary policy until inflation runs above two percent for an extended period.

The central bank’s consistency calmed fears and stocks bounced back.

“Inflation is a process and not a one-time event,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial told Reuters. “These bottlenecks are one-offs. The Fed will not consider action until it views price levels changes as permanent rather than temporary, something it does not consider possible until the economy is at full employment.”

Was April a False Inflation Positive?

There is an argument to be made that April’s CPI was a reflection of the anormal not the new normal.

Many areas seeing inflation in April’s CPI were the result of an economy recovering from the pandemic. About half of price increases came from four segments. They were: used cars, car rental, airfare, and dining out.

With more vaccinations and COVID-19 restrictions relaxing, Americans accelerated travel and leisure activities. As a result, there was a sudden burst of demand hitting a limited supply. The April CPI reflects the difference between a pandemic lockdown economy and a rapidly rebuilding economy.

Used Car Prices Lead the Way

“The index for used cars and trucks rose 10.0 percent in April,” according to the U. S. Labor Department. “This was the largest 1-month increase since the series began in 1953, and it accounted for over a third of the seasonally adjusted all items increase.”

Shortages

Like many industries, the rise in used car prices is the result of shortages.

The shortage of semiconductor chips has lead to an increase in electronics and automobile prices. With new cars in short supply, the demand for used cars has increased.

At the same time, shortages brought on by the pandemic have moved other prices higher. Car rental companies that drastically cut their inventories during the pandemic are now swamped with customers.

Travel bans and lockdowns lead to airlines cutting back and reducing staff. Meanwhile, restaurants went through the same process. Ramping up again takes time.

The elevated price of lumber has contributed to the rising cost of home purchase and home repair prices.

Shortages are often overcome with increased output. However, it takes time for services and products to catch up. As a result, some sectors, such as leisure, the automobile industry, and travel will recover in time. The question is, how much time?

The Fed’s criteria of two percent inflation over an extended period gives businesses time to recruit workers and ramp up manufacturing. However, it takes more time to grow a tree.

What To Do?

If Chair Powell is right and all the economy needs is a little time for supply to catch up with demand,…