To Fight or Adapt? Venezuela’s Fading Opposition Struggles to Keep Going

CARACAS, Venezuela — From an unremarkable apartment in a quiet residential area of Venezuela’s capital, a slender young man in a tie wages an increasingly lonely battle against the country’s authoritarian government.

Two years ago, Juan Guaidó transformed himself from little-known lawmaker to national hero by posing the most serious threat to date to the deeply unpopular president, Nicolás Maduro.

During a euphoric anti-government protest, Mr. Guaidó declared Mr. Maduro an illegitimate ruler and himself the interim head of state, drawing an outpouring of support from Venezuelans, the diplomatic recognition of around sixty democracies, and staunch American backing. Against great odds, he united the country’s fractured opposition and offered hope in a nation crushed by repression and economic collapse.

Today, the adoring crowds are gone, many international allies are wavering, and the opposition coalition is crumbling — while Mr. Maduro appears more entrenched than ever.

Mr. Guaidó’s meteoric rise in January 2019 and now his decline have brought Venezuela to a political crossroads that could define the country for years to come. At stake are the future of Venezuelans mired in one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises and the survival of organized political dissent in a nation that was once a prosperous democracy.

Mr. Guaidó and his allies still insist that they constitute the rightful government, and try to use international pressure to force Mr. Maduro to hold free and fair presidential elections.

“I think we’re close to a political solution,” Mr. Guaidó said. “There’s no way that Maduro can recover the international confidence that’s the cornerstone of any economic recovery.”

But despite his defiance, many of the remaining opposition leaders in Venezuela speak privately of a movement at its lowest ebb, mired in fear, recrimination and dwindling morale.

American sanctions designed to assist Mr. Guaidó have gutted government revenues but also forced citizens to focus on daily survival, not political mobilization. His attempts to trigger a military uprising ended up consolidating Mr. Maduro’s control of the armed forces.

One opposition official burst into tears when describing the tension of living under the constant threat of arrest. Another spoke of growing public apathy toward politics, adding, “We’re on the verge of disappearing.” Both spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal party matters.

The risks, frustrations and failures of the past two years have come at great personal cost to Mr. Guaidó, 37, and those around him.

Unrelenting government persecution has dismantled his entourage and targeted his family. His chief of staff and his uncle both spent months in prison. Most of his advisers and close relatives have fled the country.

“The worst thing,” Mr. Guaidó added, thinking of his 3-year-old daughter, “is having to explain to a child why the police follow her.”

He is not giving in. “This has been a great sacrifice, but I’d repeat it a thousand times,” he insisted in an interview.

A growing chorus within the opposition, however, says it is time to abandon efforts to force an immediate change in government and focus on political survival.

For some, that includes going against Mr. Guaidó’s insistence that they boycott any political talks that don’t pave the way for Mr. Maduro’s exit. They are also preparing to participate in regional and local elections later this year — even if the votes fall short of being free and fair.

One opposition leader, Carlos Ocariz recently began holding rallies in the important state of Miranda ahead of elections for governor. Another, Henry Ramos Allup, told his party officials last month they have a right to aspire to office in the upcoming vote.

“We have to build a strategy based on reality,” said Henrique Capriles, a prominent opposition leader and former presidential candidate. “The current strategy has…