Without stimulus, 12 million Americans will owe more than $5000 in missed rent by

Renters are expected to owe billions in missed payments by the end of the year without additional stimulus funding, according to two new analyses.

Senate Republicans have made clear they would oppose any large-scale stimulus deal reached between House Democrats and the Trump administration, at least ahead of the election, after balking at multiple Democrat-passed relief bills since May. But an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia found that another round of $1,200 stimulus payments and a clean extension of the $600-per-week federal unemployment boost that Republicans have long opposed could help millions of Americans stave off potential homelessness.

While most renters are protected from eviction by a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention directive, which expires at the end of the year, missed payments have been piling up. The Philadelphia Fed estimates that the outstanding rent debt could reach $7.2 billion by the end of the year.

“Like the patchwork of state and local moratoriums preceding it, the temporary [federal eviction moratorium] has protected many renters from the threat of losing their homes in the middle of a pandemic. However, our analysis suggests that this stopgap measure has left millions of additional households, many owing thousands of dollars of back rent, at risk when the moratorium expires,” the researchers wrote. “These households are primarily those with workers who lost jobs yet did not receive state or federal UI [unemployment insurance] (and other associated CARES Act provisions).”

That analysis likely does not show the full scope of rental debt. The analysis also found that credit card payments to businesses connected to rental real estate increased by more than 70% this spring and remained about 50% higher through the fall. That suggests many renters have cleared their rental debts only to rack up credit card debts with mounting interest rates to get by.

“Even if now they are able to make their rent payment,” Kate Bulger, a financial counselor at the counseling firm Money Management International, told The Wall Street Journal, “that huge inflation to their credit-card debt has become a new threat to their budget and their ability to cover all their expenses.”

Estimates on the full toll of the mounting rental debt vary widely. Another analysis from the financial services giant Moody’s projected that rental debt could reach $70 billion by the end of the year if there is no additional stimulus spending, according to the Journal. An estimated 12.8 million Americans would owe an average of $5,400 in missed rent, according to the analysis.

The Journal noted that Census Bureau data shows that about a quarter of renter households with children now have rent debt, with women and people of color disproportionately more likely to have missed payments. Another analysis from the University of California, Los Angeles found that Black and Latino renters in California are twice as likely to face rent insecurity as white residents.

Some cities face a potential homelessness crisis when moratoriums ultimately expire. Previous estimates showed that tens of millions of Americans face potential eviction, which could leave families without shelter or force them to move into other households, increasing the risk of coronavirus spread.

“These households will have to make some pretty massive financial choices and pull back on other spending to pay their rent,” Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s, told the Journal. “That’s a hit to the economy.”

The consequences of unpaid rent could impact families for years.

“If you don’t pay it back that can escalate to things like judgments, potential garnishments against your wages,” Bulger told the outlet.

Isis Bouzy, a Florida mother and hairstylist whose hours were cut amid the pandemic, said she faces eviction after racking up more than $2,100 in rent debt.

“I’m not sure where this will leave me,” she told the Journal. “I want to be a…